For Marlins fans,
there was really only one sentiment. But we won’t go there…
On the other side of
the coin, in Toronto and across Canada, Blue Jays fans have been
through a wild ride since that week in November. It was disbelief to
begin with, which quickly turned to delirious joy. Then there was the
Melky Cabrera signing, which put Canadians back in
too-good-to-be-true mode.
Mere minutes later
came the surreal, out-of-body realization that the Blue Jays were
back in business.
Of course, there was nervousness that Baseball Commissioner Bud Selig would overturn the trade,
pulling the relevance from under our feet. Gladly, after a weekend of
sweating it out, the deal was finally made official, and Blue Jays
fans were faced with the painful realization that Opening Day was
still in fact four months away.
With so much time on
their hands, everyone surrounding the team has since mulled over what
2013 will bring. Scouring over potential lineups, projected
rotations, even what the bench will look like in the coming season.
They have stormed through every newspaper, television, even blogs to
find any little insignificant tidbit to get their baseball fix during
the long winter.
So what exactly have
they discovered in their trek through baseball media? Most notably,
there have been articles written warning the people of Toronto to
temper their expectations. They stick out like a dent in your new
car. A simple online search of “Toronto Blue Jays” will bring you
all the opinions of these buzz kills so eager to tell you anything
and everything that could go wrong.
This has led to the
next emotion on the rollercoaster: worry. What if it doesn’t work
out? What if we get another nightmare injury rampage through our
pitching staff? What if Reyes and Cabrera turn out to be busts? What
if Hechevarria turns into a superstar?
It has become too
easy for fans to feed their angst. They search for every flaw in
their home team; most are the silliest concerns over stuff like pit
bulls and income tax, reports you normally see on the slowest of news
days.
But in this mess of
irrelevant information, there have admittedly been some serious
questions raised over the future of the Toronto Blue Jays. The most
worrisome problem is that of Josh Johnson. The 27-year-old has for
many the prize of the entire Marlins trade. The young starter is
among the most coveted assets in baseball.
He is one of three
or four pitchers in baseball who are on every general manager’s
wish list. There are talented young starters, and then there is Josh
Johnson. He is not the pitcher Toronto has grown accustomed to taking
in, a “B” or “C+” type talent who is a serviceable
alternative to the real deal. Josh Johnson is the real deal.
He is the “A” level talent on the mound the Jays have been
missing since Roy Halladay left.
So what’s the
catch?
It is not his injury
history that keeps the Toronto front office awake at night; health
issues are anything but new to GM Alex Anthopoulos. The problem is
his contract.
Johnson’s issue is
the “Reverse-Jose Reyes.” His deal isn’t too long, it’s too
short. Johnson is only locked up for one more season; this time next
year the Blue Jays could lose his to free agency, where Johnson’s
agent has suggested he might attract the richest contract ever signed
by a pitcher.
Now of course,
Johnson would realistically sell for a lot less that his agent would
have us believe. This is simply standard hype building in hopes of
raising his value.
These comments are
not meant to say Johnson has no interest in signing an extension with
the Blue Jays. He has, in fact, told the media he would be happy to
entertain such negotiations whenever Anthopoulos wishes.
But let’s not read
too much into the cookie-cutter statements the involved parties are
expected to make. Obviously the media is the last place Johnson would
reveal his true intentions.
The reality of the
situation is that Johnson will cost the Blue Jays a pretty penny to
keep long term, anyone of his calibre would. Besides, let’s face
it; Toronto is not where most baseball players would choose to spend
their career. To keep Johnson from testing free agency, it will cost
the Blue Jays will have to pay a premium, likely close to $18 million
per year. With Reyes’ contract ballooning to $22 million in 2014
that is not an easy pill to swallow.
With no guarantees
ownership will spend that kind of money, or even that Johnson would
stay if he was offered that contract, Alex Anthopoulos is faced with
a real dilemma. There is a serious chance he could lose the
centrepiece of the Marlins trade after only one year with the Blue
Jays.
Talk about a tough
pill to swallow. Josh Johnson is not the kind of player you want to
slip through your fingers. He is the guy you want anchoring your
staff for years to come, the last thing you want to see is Johnson
doing just that in another city.
If that ominous
vision comes to life, if Johnson does end up leaving Toronto at the
end of the season, where does that leave the Blue Jays? They want to
become a contending ball club this year; they have made that
abundantly clear. In fact, they plan on remaining a factor for the
foreseeable future.
Suppose the Blue
Jays end the 2013 season as an up and coming club, a step away from
going over the top and challenging for a World Championship. Losing
Josh Johnson would put management in a tough spot. They would have to
improve the quality of the club over the offseason, but they would
now have to fill a blaring hole in the rotation first.
The Blue Jays know
they cannot find all their help through free agency. Yes, ownership
did spend a ton of cash recently. Don’t expect this kind of bonanza
every offseason. With the payroll rising almost $50 million in the
blink of an eye, Rogers is probably not willing to spend much more.
With all the back-loaded contracts from Miami starting to kick in,
Toronto will not have the budget space or the appeal to land the big
fish.
The only other route
to acquire talent is the trade market, where Anthopoulos has proved
himself to be quite effective. But knowing the Jays GM, he will
likely be apprehensive about decimating his minor league system
further.
So if you can’t
trade and you can’t sign a starter, what do you do? Basically,
Toronto would be stuck with the same rotation they have now, minus
the best pitcher of the five. That’s not progress, that’s a
setback.
If the Blue Jays
want to become perennial contenders, a setback is not what they need.
Unfortunately, even if Anthopoulos puts forth his best effort to lure
Josh Johnson back long-term, you would be hard-pressed to bet on an
extension being signed.
But hey, maybe we
will be proved wrong. Maybe Johnson falls in love with Toronto, and
decides that this is where he wants to spend the rest of his career.
If somehow, someway the stars align and he signs that deal, the next
emotion down the line might be one Blue Jays fans haven't experienced
since the 90's
Boy, this is going
to be a long winter.
